Oscars 2011 : predictions?

Well, the awards seasons are here. The Golden Globe is happening this Sunday and is usually an indicator of what might happen at the Oscars.

2010 has been a good year for the movie aficionados. There are a handful of great movies and each has the potential to win a best picture award. As always most of the good movies have been released toward the year end, so as to increase movie recall with the voting committee. The Oscar buzz about a movie also pulls in more box office collection.

The following movies will share most of the honors and nominations, but it is going to be really a tough choice for the voting committee as each of these movies is a quality attempt from the respective makers.

• 127 hours
• Blackswan
• The social network
• True grit
• The King’s Speech (I haven’t seen this movie yet)
• Inception

I’m trying to predict only the categories that I’m capable of judging. So, I’ll leave out categories such as sound mixing, sound editing, makeup, song, supporting actors and the original score.

Best Original Screenplay: This should definitely go to Christopher Nolan (Inception) because of the unimaginable imagination that has gone into the story and its execution. There are two strong contenders. One - Blackswan which was a great execution as well by Darren Aronofsky. It isn’t easy to get people involved with a story involving ballet dancers. The only thing that goes against Blackswan is the concept of schizophrenia which is a done to death idea. Two – King’s Speech, heard it was a well written story, but can’t comment on it.

Best adapted Screenplay: The Social Network will win it for a well written racy and engaging screenplay without compromising on the heart of the story behind facebook. True Grit would be a strong contender too, but I believe The Social Network would win because of some nonlinearity thrown into the screenplay.

Best Editing: My vote is for Inception. Such a complex story requires neat editing to make sure that people don’t lose track of what’s going on and it was done neatly. The Social Network comes a close second.

Best cinematography: I was actually amazed by the work in 127 Hours. So, I’ll vote for it.

Best Animation movie: I desperately want How to Train Your Dragon to win it, but I’m 100% sure it will be Toy Story 3 which will walk away with the honors :(. We all know how US is obsessed with toys. Or will the Academy surprise me?

Best Visual effects: Every year there would be at least one movie which is very strong on visual effects and will win an Oscar hands down. But this year, I’ve got no clue which is going to win. Inception would definitely be under consideration. HP7 wouldn’t be far behind.

Best Art Direction: May be True Grit for recreating the old Texas?

Best Actress: Natalie Portman for Blackswan. Period.

Best Actor: I’m pretty sure Colin Firth will win this as he has got some mind-blowing reviews for his performance in King’s Speech. James Franco (127 hours) will get a nomination, but won’t win it.

Best Director: This is going be difficult to predict just as it is to predict the best movie. Danny Boyle (127 hours), Darren Aronofsky (Blackswan), David Fincher (The Social Network), Coen Brothers (True Grit), Christopher Nolan (Inception) and Tom Hooper (King’s Speech) are all contenders. There are six of them and I can’t even predict who will make it to the top five! Really tough choice. IMO, the race would finally boil down to either David Fincher or Darren Aronofsky. Anyone might win it from here.

Best Picture: The Social Network it would be. Great performances, flawless scripting, quirky dialogues, a highly relevant subject, crisp editing, and a wonderful direction – all works for the social network. A subset of all these good qualities are in other movies as well, but as I said – only a subset.

I've left out the supporting actor categories because these awards are won by movies that are not mainstream contenders for Oscars. I’ve got no idea about the musical score as well. I only hope that A.R.Rahman get’s another nomination